Jeffco teachers are leaving in record numbers – Recall Witt, Newkirk, and Williams to stop the flood of good teachers leaving Jeffco

Many parents in Jeffco are alarmed and concerned that too many good teachers are leaving Jeffco in response to the actions of the Jeffco Board of Education majority, Ken Witt, John Newkirk, and Julie Williams. Teacher turnover in Jeffco is at a record level for the past decade – and it is expected to increase. This alarming rate of teacher turnover is one of the reasons parents in Jeffco want to recall Witt, Newkirk, and Williams on the November 3, 2015 coordinated ballot. In this article I address the following questions:

• Is the number of teachers leaving Jeffco schools alarmingly high or just “slightly” higher?
  • The number of teachers leaving Jeffco is at a record high for the past decade. The increase in turnover is statistically significant and alarming.
  • Teachers leave positions for a variety of normal reasons. For example, they move, they want a career change, or they retire. The current teacher turnover in Jeffco is significantly higher than the normal yearly turnover. Something else is happening now.
• Are teachers leaving in response to the actions of the Jeffco board majority?
  • Many Jeffco teachers are leaving in response to radical and rapid changes implemented by the current board majority.
  • Teachers can now earn much more money and have a better work environment in nearby districts.
  • Teachers do not feel valued or respected by the board majority.
  • Are only poor performers leaving? Good people leave bad management.
• What are the likely consequences of high teacher turnover in Jeffco? Will student achievement increase? Or decrease?
  • There are natural and logical consequences to the actions of the board majority. We can predict the consequences because we can look at what happened in Douglas County with the same actions.
  • The Jeffco board majority is implementing the same “playbook” as Dougco implemented.
  • When Dougco implemented these policies, Dougco experienced the same statistically significant increase in teacher turnover that Jeffco is now seeing.
  • Since 2012, achievement for 66,000 students in Dougco has been steadily and significantly dropping.
  • Will the same actions result in achievement dropping for Jeffco’s 86,000 students?
  • When good teachers leave bad management, kids suffer.
• How has the board majority reacted to Jeffco teacher turnover? Are they concerned?
  • The response of the board majority to teacher turnover is shockingly disconnected from the reality of what teachers, students, and parents are experiencing.
  • Witt, Newkirk, and Superintendent Dan McMinimee say the teacher turnover is not so bad and only “slightly higher.” It is less than the average turnover for the State of Colorado, so they suggest the community shouldn’t be concerned.
  • They attribute turnover to an improved economy, or, arrogantly dismiss concerns of teachers and parents, by saying “change is hard.”
  • Williams says teachers are leaving because of Common Core testing.
  • These responses are either delusional or dishonest because they are not substantiated by data, survey results, or published testimony of many teachers.
  • If the Jeffco board majority cannot understand or acknowledge the reactions of many good teachers to their agenda, how can they make good policy decisions?
  • The consequences for students in Jeffco are too high to continue with a delusional board.
• What might happen if the board majority is not recalled, and more “conservative” board members are elected? Should we be concerned?
  • The actions of the Jeffco board majority will not lead to an effective teacher in every classroom. As Dougco has experienced, it will be increasingly hard for Jeffco to attract and retain good talent. The drain of Jeffco talent has already begun.
  • After nearly two years of enduring the policies of a confrontational board majority, Jeffco staff morale is very low. Many good teachers in Jeffco are hoping that Jeffco voters will recall the board majority and elect a new board less blinded by radical political ideology and more cognizant of the reality of what is actually happening in Jeffco schools.
  • Is the board majority a “conservative” board? Many conservatives, including many registered Republicans, actively support recall of the board majority because they do not see this board acting on conservative principles. The board majority is making radical changes to Jeffco that are proven to lead to decreased achievement, fiscally irresponsible, and in violation of board governing policies and Colorado law.
  • If the board majority is not recalled this November, and if teacher resignations continue, expect over 50% of teachers in Jeffco to leave. With the loss of talent, experience, and teacher mentors, expect Jeffco student achievement to drop.

Let’s look at an “apples-to-apples” comparison of the data:

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Is the number of teachers leaving Jeffco schools alarmingly high or just “slightly” higher? Let’s look at an “apples-to-apples” comparison

There are two sources of data for Jeffco teacher turnover. First, the Colorado Department of Education (CDE) tracks staff turnover in Colorado school districts. These data are available for download on their district statistics webpage. Second, the minutes of the Jeffco board of education meetings list all staff resignations. Student achievement is publicly available for download on CDE School View webpage. All data discussed in this article are from publicly available sources. All sources of data indicate Jeffco teacher turnover is increasing to alarming levels.

First, I look at the CDE teacher turnover data and compare the statistics of Jeffco teacher turnover relative to demographically comparable districts. This is an “apples-to-apples” comparison of teacher turnover.

Small districts have high variability in teacher turnover.

In the figure below, I plot the CDE teacher turnover data vs. district enrollment for all 179 districts in Colorado (click on any figure for a larger view).

• Small districts have high variability in teacher turnover.
• This is simple math. If a district has 10 teachers, and one leaves, that is a 10% turnover rate. If another district has 100 teachers, and one leaves, that is a 1% turnover rate.
• Higher variability in teacher turnover starts at enrollment less than 22,000, and increases significantly at enrollment less than 15,000 students. Jeffco enrollment is 86,000 students.
• Therefore, for an “apples-to-apples” comparison, we should compare Jeffco teacher turnover only to districts with more than 22,000 students.

Districts with higher poverty levels have higher teacher turnover.

The following figure shows CDE teacher turnover data vs. poverty levels, excluding districts with less than 22,000 students.

• Poverty levels in a district are measured by the percentage of children who qualify for free and reduced lunch, or FRL%.
• Teacher turnover is not dependent on FRL% when there are less than 35% FRL in a district.
• At poverty levels greater than 35% FRL, teacher turnover increases as poverty levels increase.
• Teacher turnover in high poverty districts is higher largely because of teacher burnout. These teachers have a very difficult job, with too few resources.
• Jeffco has an FRL% of less than 35%. For an “apples-to-apples” comparison of teacher turnover, we should compare Jeffco to districts with less than 35% FRL.

Teacher turnover trends for Jeffco  & “Apples-to-Apples” districts.

Colorado districts demographically similar to Jeffco for teacher turnover have enrollment greater than 22,000 students and poverty levels less than 35% FRL. The following graph shows teacher turnover for Jeffco and “apples-to-apples” demographically similar districts to analyze teacher turnover for the past decade. The blue line is the average teacher turnover trend. The red line is the average turnover plus one standard deviation. The teal line is the average minus one standard deviation.

[A note on what can be confusing labeling: this is a graph of teacher turnover for each “academic year.” For example, the CDE reported teacher turnover for calendar year 2014 (January to December, 2014) in academic year 2015 (January, 2015). Students see the effect of teacher turnover during the academic year (September 2014 to May, 2015), when districts must bring in new teachers unfamiliar with Jeffco or the students.]

• Overall, teacher turnover in these districts increased to a high in 2005. Turnover then decreased to a low from 2010 to 2011. Turnover has been increasing overall since 2011.
• This overall trend does seem to correlate to the economy, as fewer people voluntarily leave their jobs in a recession. In Jeffco, the Jefferson County Education Association (JCEA) negotiated pay cuts and freezes to keep teachers in the classroom and class sizes low during this time.
• To understand teacher turnover beyond the economy for any specific district, we need to look at turnover for that district relative to the statistical trend lines in blue, red, and teal.

The following graph is just like the one above, but now also shows the trend line for average teacher turnover in the State of Colorado (solid green line).

• Witt, Newkirk, and board majority supporters claim that Jeffco teacher turnover is less than the state average, so it is not so bad.
• The average teacher turnover for Colorado in nearly all years for the past decade has been a statistical outlier on the high side relative to the “apples-to-apples” districts for Jeffco.
• The State average is an outlier because it is an apples-to-oranges comparison to these districts. For a detailed analysis of why the average teacher turnover in Colorado is so high, please see the last section of this article. The short answer is that the high values for the Colorado average are largely controlled by the many small districts in Colorado with enrollment less than 1000 students.
• Witt and Newkirk’s comparison is mathematically meaningless and deceptive.

Comparing Jeffco teacher turnover to the Colorado average is like comparing Jeffco to districts such as Wray, Salida, Akron, Brush, Trinidad, and many very small Colorado districts. This is a mathematically meaningless comparison, or “apples-to-oranges.”

Comparison of Jeffco with “apples-to-apples” districts.

The following graph highlights Jeffco teacher turnover relative to the statistics for the “apples-to-apples” districts.

• Until this year, Jeffco teacher turnover has been nearly a statistical outlier on the low side compared to demographically comparable districts.  Until now, Jeffco turnover at its highest in 2005 was average compared to these districts. Suddenly, Jeffco teacher turnover is at its highest compared to these districts.
• In the 2014-2015 school year, teacher turnover in Jeffco increased significantly from the previous 2013-2014 school year. In just one year, Jeffco went from being an outlier on the low side to nearly an outlier on the high side. This increase in Jeffco turnover is statistically very significant.
• A sudden, statistically significant increase in turnover happened for another district during this decade – Dougco, starting in 2012.

The following graph highlights Dougco teacher turnover relative to the statistics for the “apples-to-apples” districts.

• Dougco teacher turnover was very low until 2012, after which it increased dramatically. Dougco has remained a statistical outlier on the high side since 2014.
• What happened in Dougco in 2012? In 2012, Dougco implemented a new, untested evaluation system, teacher “pay-for-performance” based on this evaluation system, and shut down negotiations with the Dougco teachers’ union.
• This sounds a lot like Jeffco this past year. In the 2015 academic year, the Jeffco board hastily implemented a “pay-for-performance” compensation plan, based on an untested evaluation system. Parts of this plan were stopped by a court injunction. After five months of extensive negotiations, the Jeffco board approved only a 10 month contract in August, 2015.
• Many in Jeffco think the Jeffco board majority accepted a 10-month contract in August 2015 only to survive the November recall election. Many see the 10-month contract as a prelude to shutting down negotiations with the teachers union in 2016, just as Dougco did in 2012.

Teachers, parents, and community members who are longtime residents of Jeffco have the perception that this turnover is a dramatic shift and that something is very, very wrong in Jeffco now – and they are correct.

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Actual licensed teacher resignations from Jeffco have increased dramatically.

The CDE turnover data include all teachers changing positions. Some of these positions are temporary contracts, others move into administration, and others leave the district. In any given year, teachers leave for all kinds of reasons and there is an expected “normal” rate of turnover. How many licensed permanent teachers are leaving Jeffco? In a communication to parents right out of the Witt, Newkirk, and Williams recall political talking points, Superintendent Dan McMinimee assured parents that the number of teachers leaving Jeffco is only “slightly” higher than in the past and not really so bad.

The graph below shows the rate of licensed teacher resignations in Jeffco as compiled by the parents at Jeffco Exodus.

• The Jeffco board of education regular meeting minutes include a list of all resignations within the district.
• As compiled by the parents at Jeffco Exodus, most teachers resign during the summer months, between school years.
• Beginning the summer after the board majority’s first year, teacher resignations increased significantly. Resignations have been increasing every year the board majority has been in office.
• Since the board majority took office, more than 850 Jeffco teachers have resigned.
• Many expect these numbers to increase if the board majority is not recalled.

At this rate, if the board is not recalled, 50% of Jeffco teachers will resign by the end of their current terms.

 

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Achievement in Dougco is dropping – will Jeffco achievement also drop?

The following graph and table below illustrate the changes in achievement for Dougco students since 2012.

• These data include only TCAP results, year-to-year changes in poverty levels were low, and student opt-out was low. Aggregate scores are highly comparable year-to-year for 2012-2014.
• Concurrent with a statistically significant increase in Dougco teacher turnover, Dougco achievement has been steadily dropping. Dougco achievement has dropped in nearly all areas for all student cohort groups.
• Student achievement within many Douglas county schools has been impacted by the chaos of constant staff turnover, with the resulting loss of talent, teacher mentors, plus the inability of the district to attract the best talent.
• Starting in 2015, the board majority implemented the same policies in Jeffco that Dougco implemented in 2012. In 2015, Jeffco teacher turnover increased significantly, just like Dougco after 2012. We should expect student achievement to drop similarly in Jeffco.

To expect a different result in Jeffco after implementing the same policies as implemented in Dougco is magical thinking.

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Jeffco teachers are leaving in record numbers in response to the actions of the board majority – teacher survey data

The graph below shows the results of the TELL Colorado survey, a survey of teachers conducted every two years. In 2015, 63% of Jeffco teachers filled out this survey. These data were compiled by Jim Early.

• Jeffco teachers say they are unhappy with their work environment and wish to leave Jeffco, primarily to teach in another district.
• These data are consistent with the resignations that actually occurred – there has been a dramatic increase in 2015 compared to 2011 and 2013.
• These data show that the claim by Julie Williams that teachers are leaving because of testing, is just not true. Other districts also have Common Core testing.

Jeffco Students For Change, an organization of Jeffco students that formed in response to the APUSH curriculum review proposal, conducted a survey of Jeffco teachers in April 2015 (made public in May, 2015). They asked Jeffco teachers questions that the board of education has not asked Jeffco teachers. 1132 Jeffco teachers responded to this survey. The results indicate that many teachers in Jeffco are highly dissatisfied with the current board majority.

• Jeffco teachers do not feel valued as a district employee.
• Jeffco teachers are highly likely to move to another district.
•  Jeffco teachers do not like the new compensation model or trust the district to negotiate in good faith.

Jeffco Students For Change tried to present these data to the board of education during the May, 2015 board meeting public comment. In an attempt to keep these data from the public view, Ken Witt arbitrarily changed the public comment rules just a few hours before the meeting, limiting the time available for the students to speak. The May board meeting was long, extending into the wee morning hours of the next day. In these early morning hours, near the end of the public board meeting, Witt, with the assistance of John Newkirk, violated a student’s privacy by publicly displaying the minor student’s name, picture, Twitter, and Facebook accounts on the overhead monitor, labeling her a racist. Board majority members had actually trolled the students social media accounts to find something they didn’t like, so as to display the information during a public board meeting. Many in the community saw this as a heavy-handed attempt by Newkirk and Witt to silence and intimidate a student who was presenting data that they do not want the public to know about.

Why don’t Witt and Newkirk want you to see this data?

Jeffco Exodus has documented numerous stories from teachers leaving Jeffco, or who are wanting to leave Jeffco. Jeffo teachers speak about the lack of respect, a toxic work environment, poor compensation, and violations of board governing policies and laws. The teachers also speak about how many highly-effective teachers are leaving. Jeffco is losing some excellent teachers.

These are the real voices of Jeffco teachers that Witt, Newkirk, and Williams choose to ignore and arrogantly dismiss.

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Recall Ken Witt, John Newkirk, and Julie Williams

• Jeffco teachers are leaving in record numbers because of the actions of the board majority. Turnover has increased from a low statistical outlier to a high statistical outlier in only one year.
• They are leaving due to a lack of respect, transparency, and accountability of this board.
• Jeffco teachers are reacting to the board majority just like Dougco teachers reacted to their board majority when the same policies were implemented.
• Dougco teacher turnover is still very high, and Dougco achievement is dropping for 66,000 students.
• With the same policy implementation, why would we not expect Jeffco student achievement to drop also?
• Jeffco used to be a district of choice for good talent, but no more. This year Jeffco has had difficulty filling all the new open positions. As of September 24, one month into the school year, Jeffco still had 23 unfilled licensed teacher positions, primarily in special education, math, and science.
• Jeffco still has many talented teachers – but will they leave if this board is not recalled?

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How can you help?

• Sign up for the community walks to educate Jefferson county voters at Jeffco United.
• Learn about the issues behind the recall at Jeffco United for Action, and Support Jeffco Kids.ORG.
• Learn about the “Fab Five” – the slate of candidates for the Jeffco school board at Jeffco United Forward.
• Note, these five candidates are running as a slate to unite their limited resources. Collectively, they are facing an opposition with significantly more out-of-county funding from Americans for Prosperity. Who do you think paid for the prime-time TV ads for Julie Williams and the many slick mailers?
• Donate to help the recall at Jeffco United for Action.
• Donate to help the slate of pro-public education candidates, the “Fab Five,” at Jeffco United Forward
• Vote – turn in your ballot for the November 3, 2015 coordinated election. Ballots will be mailed in mid-October.
• Vote to recall Ken Witt, John Newkirk, and Julie Williams to stop the destruction of Jeffco public schools.
• Vote for the Fab Five to restore a board focused on Jeffco students and not a political agenda: Ali Lasell, Amanda Stevens, Brad Rupert, Susan Harmon, and Ron Mitchell.

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Additional Section – Analysis of the State of Colorado Average Teacher Turnover – Apples to Oranges

Ken Witt, John Newkirk, and board majority supporters claim that because Jeffco teacher turnover is less than the average Colorado teacher turnover, we should not be concerned.

In a professionally taped interview, John Newkirk says

Well, I think that the, you know, the teacher, the rates of attrition in our district is 10-20% below the state average. (inaudible) I think is pretty good for the fact that we are the largest K-12 in the state. So I don’t really believe that there is a net increase, a net exodus.

In the same taped interview, Ken Witt says

We’ve come off of a period of financial challenge in the economoy over the past few years. As times improve, so does mobility. Across every industry. Right now, people are changing jobs more than they were when times are tight. But let’s face it, in Jefferson County there have been a lot of very significant meaningful changes in education over the last year and a half. … Those changes come with some challenges. Change is hard. Of course I expect there will be some increase in turnover during a period of change. But it’s not a large increase in turnover in Jefferson County. In fact, it is a fairly modest one and continues to be below the state average.

When they say turnover is not so bad when compared to the Colorado average, is this a meaningful comparison? When they compare Jeffco turnover to the Colorado average, what are they actually comparing? Is the Colorado average dominated by large districts like Jeffco?

The CDE calculates the average teacher turnover by summing up all the teachers who left positions in Colorado, divided by the sum of all teachers in the previous year.

The upper graph of the following figure shows teacher turnover for the two largest districts in Colorado. The green line is the actual Colorado average teacher turnover. The purple line is Jeffco. The brown dashed line would be the Colorado average turnover if only Jeffco and Denver were in Colorado. It sort-of matches the actual Colorado average, but is not a great match.

The lower graph shows the same calculation, but now using the largest 4 districts in Colorado to calculate an average. The calculated average has the same shape as the Colorado average, but values for turnover are significantly lower than the actual Colorado average.

The average teacher turnover in Colorado is not dominated by the largest districts in Colorado.

This figure below shows the same calculation after successively adding more districts. What size of district must we include to match the Colorado average? The upper graph shows the calculated result for all districts with enrollment greater than 22,000 (12 districts). It is not so different than the graph with 4 districts – in fact with more districts, the calculated result hardly changes.

The lower graph is the calculated result for districts with enrollment greater than…1000 students (81 districts)! Finally, the calculated average turnover matches the actual Colorado average teacher turnover.

To match the calculated average of teacher turnover in Colorado, one must include many very small districts, with teacher turnover dominated by the simple mathematical effect of changes in small staff numbers. The idea that Jeffco turnover is not so bad because it is less than the Colorado average is said, over, and over, and over by Witt, Newkirk, and their supporters. It is a meaningless and deceptive comparison.

Comparing Jeffco teacher turnover to the Colorado average is like comparing Jeffco to districts such as Wray, Salida, Akron, Brush, Trinidad, …. This is a mathematically meaningless comparison, or “apples-to-oranges.”